This is a free translation of the article "‘Smart Autonomy’ para a política externa brasileira", published by Jornal Estadão based on the interview with the researcher Leonardo Paz Nevez from FGV IIU on December 23, 2024.

‘Smart autonomy’ for Brazilian foreign policy

New approach recognizes the importance of multilateralism, but also sees deepening relations with key countries as crucial.

"In recent decades, Brazilian foreign policy has been characterized by a logic of national autonomy. Its first approach, known as autonomy through detachment, was adopted during the military regime. It did not indicate a break with either of the two global superpowers at the time, but rather a distancing from the ideological power projects of the United States and the Soviet Union. During the 1990s of the post-Cold War, Brazilian foreign policy entered a new phase: that of autonomy through participation. The government of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso identified the deficiency of globalization as an “irresistible force”, betting on the multilateral project and the strengthening of international instruments and regimes.

During the governments of the Workers' Party, a new logic was adopted: that of autonomy through diversification, reflecting a new international scenario, with the assumption of this emerging group at the center of the decision-making spaces of global governance. The creation of the G-20 at the turn of the century already set the tone for this trend. Stronger and more self-confident, President Lula da Silva's government sought to diversify its range of international partnerships, without compromising its relationship with the US and the West. It encouraged the creation of a set of spaces for dialogue and sought to institutionalize some more strategic relationships, such as BRICS, the India, Brazil and South Africa Dialogue Forum (IBAS) and the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR).

With the arrival of Donald Trump as president of the US, the victory of Brexit in the United Kingdom and the strengthening of anti-globalist groups, the winds of multilateralism and commitments to globalization have lost strength. The intensification of the rivalry between the US and China, the outbreak of COVID-19, the war in Ukraine and Trump's return to power in the US seem to have consolidated what we began to see in 2016. We are living in a new era, a return of geopolitical rivalries in which the fight against new international threats and the development of global public goods are subject to the political and security agendas of the main powers.

It is in this new context that Brazilian diplomacy needs to reinvent itself in an intelligent and pragmatic way so that the country can mitigate the effects of new challenges and take advantage of scarce opportunities for development. Thus, we propose a new logic: that of intelligent autonomy.

Today, Brazil cannot do without having excellent relations with China and the United States. Brazil does not have the luxury of choosing. The United States is our main source and destination of foreign direct investment, it is where our largest diaspora is located and it is a country with which we share deep cultural ties. China is our main trading partner and financier of our external surplus, it is the world's largest economy and the nerve center of the most dynamic region on the planet. Both countries are indispensable for Brazil's development. We will undoubtedly be caught in the crossfire in the future (see American pressure regarding the adoption of 5G technology). Knowing how to navigate between the geopolitical interests of China and the United States, without alienating either or suffering minimal economic damage, will be an art.

Multilateralism is on the decline, but that does not mean we should abandon such a precious asset of modern international society. It is only through multilateralism that we will be able to mitigate the main challenges of our time, such as climate change, health emergencies, cybersecurity, etc. We have already made this choice by betting everything on the multilateral solution of the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and we missed the timing to move forward with other trade partnerships. As a result, we have seen our participation in international trade stagnate for decades.

In parallel with the defense of multilateralism, our strategy must also be more aggressive in establishing tactical partnerships with countries that also defend their internationalization as a path to their development, and are less tied to geopolitical interests. One case worth highlighting is South Korea, a country whose development depends on its international insertion, in addition to having a dynamic economy that complements Brazil's. It has advanced technology in sectors that are critical to our development, such as communications and energy (such as green hydrogen and semiconductors). The relationship with Korea would suffer fewer limitations due to geopolitical issues.

In this sense, smart autonomy is a flexible and pragmatic approach. It focuses on building a positive agenda with both powers of our time, while trying to evade the geopolitical pressures imposed by them. Smart autonomy recognizes the importance of multilateralism, but at the same time sees tactical engagement in deepening relations with some key countries as crucial. We should develop more robust strategies to adapt to this approach. After all, countries like South Korea, India and Indonesia can be key to our future development."

Acess the original article here: https://www.estadao.com.br/opiniao/espaco-aberto/smart-autonomy-para-a-politica-externa-brasileira/